Perfect system for the application of phylodynamic methods.
Can the evolution be explained by an unstructured model of prevalence dynamics?
If not, how does population structure influence the pathogen evolution?
Is there evidence for multiple introductions during a single season?
\[ P(T,C|A) \propto P(A|T) P(T|C) P(C|\theta) P(\theta) \]
How do we sample the $(T,C)$ state space?
See David Welch's talk this afternoon!
Neither of these models deal explicitly with the epidemiological dynamics: to do!
Summary tree lineage count at the season start is a rough estimate for the introduction count.
Use distribution of sampled tree lineage counts at season start as proxy for intro. count posterior.
Use structured coalescent model to explicitly model introductions using an additional World deme.
Thank you for listening!